2017-07-09 18:13:41 -06:00
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---
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title: Long Bets
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2022-09-04 16:59:13 -06:00
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section: other
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2017-07-09 18:13:41 -06:00
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---
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2014-03-11 13:31:26 -06:00
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All bets are for $1.
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Neale's prediction is the one stated.
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Los Angeles Population (Blake)
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2014-12-27 16:52:34 -07:00
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==============================
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2014-03-11 13:31:26 -06:00
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On Feb 24, 2029, the metropolitan area commonly known as "Los Angeles"
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will have, at most recent measure, double-digit population decrease.
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2014-12-27 16:52:34 -07:00
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Neale's Rationale
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LA uses a ton of fresh water, brought in from all over the place.
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As droughts worsen, there will be increasingly large fights over water.
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Regardless of the political outcome,
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places closer to fresh water will tend to keep that water.
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LA is not close to fresh water.
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Las Vegas is going to have the same problem,
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but predicting the collapse of Las Vegas didn't seem as challenging.
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------
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This Page (Nemo Thorx)
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======================
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By 7 December, 2028, Neale will have updated this web page
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within the last 12 months.
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Neale's Rationale
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-----------------
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I actually think Nemo's right,
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but this was such an amusing bet,
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I couldn't turn it down.
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------
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DC Power (Nobody yet!)
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======================
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By 2030, over ⅓ of US residences currently being built will be wired with a DC power bus.
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Neale's Rationale
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-----------------
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When I counted in 2014, we had only 5 electrical devices
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that used Alternating Current.
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Everything else ran off a "wall wart":
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an AC to DC transformer.
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In addition to DC being tremendously safer
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(it won't stop Junior's heart when he sticks a fork in a USB port),
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it's also potentially more efficient to have a single transformer for the entire house.
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As more houses move to solar power with battery storage,
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the conversion from DC batteries to AC wall power,
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just to be converted again to DC,
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will be a tantalizing inefficiency to conquer.
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And with the introduction in 2015 of USB delivering up to 100W,
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there will even be a standard to use.
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