From fbf699d4067c6bcd2f0a8d687680a91fc5dc8fcb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Neale Pickett Date: Wed, 5 Oct 2022 00:48:12 -0600 Subject: [PATCH] CLRG cheating essay --- content/blog/2022-10-04-CLRG-cheating.md | 264 +++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 264 insertions(+) create mode 100644 content/blog/2022-10-04-CLRG-cheating.md diff --git a/content/blog/2022-10-04-CLRG-cheating.md b/content/blog/2022-10-04-CLRG-cheating.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..27f8dae --- /dev/null +++ b/content/blog/2022-10-04-CLRG-cheating.md @@ -0,0 +1,264 @@ +--- +title: CLRG's Cheating Scandal +date: 2022-10-04 +--- + +Amy just stumbled across a PowerPoint file with a bunch of text messages, +pretty clearly illustrating a massive cheating scandal. + +I won't post a link to the file, +I won't post any screen shots, +and I won't reveal any names, +because I'm not interested in doxxing people. + + +Summary +------------ + +The PowerPoint file consists of text messages between someone who I will call +Sam and a number of CLRG school owners and adjudicators. Sam's messages +illustrate what appears to be a years-long, maybe decades-long, racket in which +adjudicators trade favors in exchange for inflated scores of chosen dancers. +These favors are either reciprocal, or, in one case, sexual. +I see weak evidence of money changing hands. + +In addition, it is made clear that a school owner is having an extramarital +affair with Sam. + + +Technical Analysis +------------------------- + +The PowerPoint document going around appears to be a series of screen shots from +the phone of an adjudicator who I will refer to as Sam. Sam appears to have +gone back through chat history, taken a bunch of screen shots, and emailed them +to someone whose name I don't recognize. The text of two emails is included in +the document before the screen shots which must have been attachments. + +The icons at the top of the screen shots indicate that Sam has an Android +phone. Android allows you to take screen shots by pressing the power button and +the volume down button at the same time. It's common for people to hit the +volume button before power, which results in the phone turning the volume down +just before the screen shot is taken. You can see evidence of this: the volume +control appears in some of the screen shots. Someone more familiar with mobile +phones could probably tell you the Android version and phone manufacturer. + +The screen shots are of text messages with WhatsApp and Instagram (thanks to my +daughter for figuring this one out). In both apps, Sam is writing the text on +the right side of the screen, and the person Sam is chatting with is on the left +side. That person's name and their profile icon (usually a photo of their head) +can be found at the top of the screen. + +The icons make it fairly clear that these messages all came from one phone. The +main apps I see are Twitter, Spotify, something that's just a dot, and another +thing I don't recognize that looks sort of like a stylized four-leafed clover. + +There isn't really too much more to analyze here, +from a technical standpoint. + +My Take +----------- + +I feel compelled to highlight a few observations: + +### Sam is a man + +Due to the sexual messages, +specifically one where Sam is called a "good boy", +and other clues leading us to Sam's real identity, +my team feels confident that Sam is a man. + +### Sam might be creeping on kids + +There's a weird message, from Sam, saying "178 is hot". There's no additional +context here, other than that 178 is a U11 girl, which means she is 11 years old +or younger. + +It's possible this was just poor phrasing and "178 is on fire" would have been +better. + +### Sam is involved in an affair + +In what is probably the most memorable part of the document, +one school owner and Sam exchange messages outlining an extramarital affair. +It's not clear whether the school owner's spouse is aware of this. +But it is clear that the school owner likes Sam to have his "ass in the air". + +### Sam didn't intend for this to become widespread + +While I don't know what his motivation was for taking and sending these screen +shots, I feel sorry for this person. Nothing in this document makes it look like +Sam was trying to publicize what was going on. And there are a few things that +Sam is probably seriously regretting sending, such as the affair. + +In fact, there are enough clues in these messages that my team is confident they +know Sam's real name. If we're right, Sam definitely would not want any of this +to become public. + +### This is old + +The earliest message is from July 2016. + +### This is deep + +In an exchange on slide 5, 6 of the 14 judges at All-Irelands 2019 are +implicated as colluding. + +In an exchange on slide 3, it is implied that up to 5 adjudicators are not part +of the racket, or are at least not bribeable by the person who refers to them as +"the panel from hell". Let's be optimistic and assume that all 5 of these +adjudicators are not bribeable. + +Naking both of these together, we can guess that 6 to 9 of the adjudicators at +All Irelands 2019 were in on this racket. + +There's a lot of math to get into here: accounting for how the overall +rankings are computed may make it possible for two colluding adjudicators (16% +chance) to compromise the entire ranking. But starting out with half the judges +compromised belies severe problems, no matter how you slice it. + +### This probably isn't as effective as you might think + +Most of these messages are just lists of numbers. +One smart cheater sent a photograph, +which is probably easier to remember. +The reality is likely that they don't remember all the numbers with 100% accuracy. +This would result either in fair judging, +or throwing points at the wrong number. + +The younger dancers probably suffer the most from inaccuracy in cheating. +For the older competitors, the accuracy of cheating is probably higher, +as the adjudicators grow to recognize dancers. + +Also working in favor of fairness is the number of adjudicators. At smaller +events, there are 3 on a panel, so about a 5% chance that everybody is +compromised, if half the judges are bad. + +### This could probably be detected + +If anybody ever bothered to do analysis of the scores handed out, it would +probably be pretty easy to detect the type of cheating that this document seems +to illustrate. That wouldn't stop the cheating, but it would make it harder. + +Unfortunately, I don't believe any of the software in use does anything like +this. And I don't think the data is made available in a way that would make +independent audits feasible. + +The data exists to be analyzed and audited, but until there's a lot of pressure +to do this, I don't see it happening. And as angry as everyone is about things, +I doubt the result will be auditable data. Doing audits is expensive, and the +people with lots of money are probably more inclined to use it to bribe +adjudicators. + +### These messages are just the tip of the iceberg + +Let's do some arithmetic! + +Including Sam, +there are 14 people implicated by this document. + +We are just reading Sam's messages: presumably everyone involved is messaging +everyone else as well. Mathematicians call this a "complete graph". That means +there are (14*13)/2 = 91 conversations. Put another way, we are only seeing 15% +of the racket within this group of 14 people + +But these appear to mostly be UK people. +If this racket is larger than the UK, +you can expect much, much more has been going on that we have yet to learn about. +And you can bet that it's larger than the UK: +it is difficult to envsion how something like this could stay that regional, +with an organization as international as CLRG. + +All-Irelands 2019, mentioned in Sam's email, had 14 judges. If we + +This doesn't mean your school is involved. +But it probably does mean your school has been affected. + + +Closing Thoughts +------------------- + +Trees grow up *and* down. The part of the tree you can see is only half of the +organism: for every meter of Siberian Elm tree I can cut down, there's a meter +of Siberian Elm tree I need to dig out, and digging is way more work than +cutting. + +I suspect that this racket is deep-rooted and widespread. I imagine the most +likely outcome will be a lot of social media posts, some funny T shirts, a few +resignations, maybe some people getting banned from events, and that's about it. +The only adjudicator this document proves is corrupt is the whisleblower who +sent in the screen shots. Even people named in these messages stand a decent +chance of escaping consequences, if they play their cards right. + +Don't forget that you need a lot of certified adjudicators for things to run at +their current scale. They can't just fire everybody and start over: they need +their current instructors to train up new ones. And if this document is +representative, half of their current instructor pool is already compromised. +There's no way to ensure this scheme won't be a part of the training. + +Somebody is going to have to deliver a candid presentation to the board, or +whatever they have, about the reality here. The corruption is probably so deep +that they won't be able to take any significant action without destroying the +whole organization. And this is just going to embolden the bad actors. + +After time passes, the presure from some of these intense and monied parents +I've met will resume, and everything will be back to the way it was before. +Sure, there will be some casting changes, but the system that's been built up +for years--possibly decades--is going to persist long after the furore dies +down. + +We may, however, see a renewed interest in some of the smaller Irish Dance +organizations like CRN, who already seems to be making some moves. + + +Background +--------------- + +### CLRG and Competitive Irish Dance + +An Coimisiún le Rincí Gaelacha (CLRG) +is the largest competitive Irish Dance organization in the world. +Their main activity, +as far as I know, +is running competitions, called "Feisanna", +which Americans pronounce like "feshes", +because we can't read Gaelic. + +These events are adjudicated by certified judges, +most of whom also own dance schools of their own. +These judges fly out to the events, +sit through 8-12 hours of mostly children dancing around on a stage, +try to write helpful notes in just a few seconds, +assign a score, +and then move on to the next round. + +Periodically, the scores are tabulated by volunteers +(mostly dads, from my experience), +entered into one of a handful of online systems just for Irish Dance competitions, +and awards are presented based on results computed by the systems. +(None of these systems have auditable source code, to my knowledge, +but that's a topic for another article.) + + +### About Me + +I'm a computer security researcher and educator, +specializing in forensic investigation. +That means I show up after the bad thing has happened, +and build a story about what happened based on gathered evidence. +The analysis I'm doing here isn't particularly difficult: +my teenage daughter actually helped me put it together. +But I am coming at this from a history of doing similar things. + +My daughter does competitive Irish Dance with CLRG. +She's been dancing for over 12 years now. +My involvement has mostly stayed peripheral: +running sound and electrical at events, +helping with tabulation, +and driving everybody home while they sleep. + +I am not a journalist. +I'm really looking forward to reading what gets written about this +by somebody who does investigative journalism for a living. +But that article isn't out yet, +so I wrote this one.